Traveling for the April Holidays

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Are you traveling for the April holidays? 

Toronto epidemiologists weigh on coronavirus risks

With the spread of the new coronavirus continuing and the April vacation looming, there is much to think about before you travel outside the country.

The Star asked four epidemiologists to assess the risks that could arise from your getaway. Here's what they said:

Dave Fisman, University of Toronto

"The difficulty is that we do not live in a country where the country restricts your civil liberties on a whim. We do not have solid evidence of transmission in the United States because the tests were such a clown car And, then, on what basis would you tell people that the planes are on the ground and that you cannot advance? There is no basis.

“My friends who go to Florida are young people with children. I am not worried about the risk for them, I am worried about the re-importation which strikes our elderly. "

Fisman says that if a dozen - or a few hundred - people infected with COVID return to Canada after the April break, this could lead to a new cycle of infection.

"I don't worry about 10-year-olds, I worry about their grandparents when they return from Florida," he said. "It's a community risk issue where we don't have much leverage to say," You can't travel because you could reintroduce a disease that kills people who aren't you. "But if you have pre-existing conditions, if you are over 50, you will probably want to think twice because you are at risk."

Sue Bondy, University of Toronto

"The Canadian government has not said that people should cancel voluntary travel plans because they are concerned about economic and personal harm.

"If not traveling is a huge cost to the family, government agencies are not asking you to cancel right now." We are also part of a society, so we can make our own decisions about how to behave, as a member of a community.

"Of course, some employers may advise against travel, because if you are caught in a quarantine or travel restriction, you are putting someone out of service.

“You could be faced with a situation like many parts of the United States, where the number of patients needing care is exploding. Think of the risk to yourself and the risk to the community with which you are associated. If you have an extended family that is fragile, elderly, and has preexisting conditions, you may be motivated not to be on a risky trip. "

Timothy Sly, Ryerson University

"It is an individual decision. I would not go to Iran or Italy at the moment and we really do not know the extent of the epidemic because the figures could be manipulated. All the figures indicate that this is the best scenario; the least could be 20 times more dangerous.

"Not traveling is also humanly logical, it is probably best avoided. It is probably better to have quantitative or qualitative logic rather than just adding numbers. However, the vast majority of people will fly and head to their destination and they will return well.

"We do not know exactly what proportion of people, but a certain number can become infected and infectious and possibly spread to others. Even if they are not very numerous, they can be very slightly asymptomatic or presymptomatic, so c is a little disturbing. "

Isaac Bogoch, University of Toronto

"There is no single solution. It is important that people are aware of certain things before traveling. Some trips will continue as planned, but there are risks.

“You should be aware of travel advice. Know the travel advice for the country you are in and the country you are going to. If you are traveling from Canada to South Africa, but Japan is a stopover en route, South Africa may not let you in if they have canceled incoming flights from Japan. So you need to know where you are going and how you are getting there.

“The other thing to be aware of is that the rules can change along the way. You need bulletproof travel and cancellation insurance, and you also need bulletproof health insurance."

Otherwise, says Bogoch, you may want to reconsider your travel plans.

“Everyone has their own risk tolerance and their own perception of risk. What works for some people may not work for others. Some people just won't feel comfortable and of course that is understandable."

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